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Journal article 2026

Large language models enable prognostic stratification of cancer patients using real-world clinical notes

Niklas Kiermeyer, Tim Lenfers, Amin Dada, Julian Friedrich, Sameh Khattab, Eric Knop, Jan Egger, Markus Pauly, Andreas Jung, Grégoire Montavon, Jens T. Siveke, Marcel Wiesweg, Stefan Kasper, Ulf Peter Neumann, Frederick Klauschen, Sylvia Hartmann, Martin Schuler, Philipp Keyl, Jens Kleesiek, Julius Keyl

PLOS Digital Health

Large language models enable prognostic stratification of cancer patients using real-world clinical notes

Abstract

In medical documentation, vast amounts of unstructured text are generated that are still underutilized in current prognostic models. We investigate the potential of self-hosted large language models (LLM) to extract clinically meaningful, patient-specific information from routine clinical notes for personalized risk stratification in cancer care. We collected real-world medical notes from 2,708 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients and 814 colon cancer patients documented before treatment at a large comprehensive cancer center. LLMs extracted key prognostic indicators, including comorbidities, metastatic sites, and qualitative descriptors of patient condition, in a zero-shot manner without prior task-specific training. Integrating these LLM-derived features into machine learning models significantly improved the prediction of overall survival compared to TNM staging alone (C-Index: NSCLC, 0.72 vs 0.64; colon cancer, 0.70 vs 0.59), and surpassed models using text embeddings. Based on the LLM-informed risk scores, patients were stratified into four distinct risk groups, enabling reclassification of 61.4% of NSCLC and 68.3% of colon cancer patients. Analysis of model drivers revealed that LLM-derived factors, such as the physical condition, substantially modulated the prognostic impact of TNM stage. These findings highlight the potential of self-hosted LLM to derive prognostically relevant information from unstructured clinical documentation and support clinical decision-making.
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